OP/ED
Life in the Group of Five is a difficult one, especially if you are in the upper echelon of mid-major football.
In order to compete with the so-called major players such as Texas, Texas A&M, LSU and such, essentially, teams have to be completely perfect.
Boise State learned the hard way in 2010 when the Broncos had the No. 3 national ranking only to see their season crumble on a fateful night in Nevada when the Wolfpack handed them their first loss of the season in overtime.
While Boise State went on to win the conference and finish the season with a 12-1 record, the Broncos hopes of competing for a potential national championship were dashed away while being regulated from playing in a prestigious BCS Bowl Game to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Texas State’s loss to Arizona State last Thursday feels similar in many ways. The Bobcats had a chance to beat their second straight P4 opponent only for the Sun Devils to escape San Marcos with the win.
Despite playing a P4 opponent that has significantly improved their standing since last season and seems prepared for a strong season, the Bobcats went toe-to-toe, leather-to-leather for all four quarters. You could feel the disappointment from Texas State fans everywhere. It is a testament to show how far the Bobcats have come from the program’s dark periods in the 2010s.
But college football has changed in 2024 compared to 2010, especially when it comes to mid-major football.
Most noticeable is the College Football Playoff or rather the expanded 12-team playoff.
In the era of the BCS, and even the four team College Football Playoff, a mid-major had to be perfect to even make the conversation for a potential berth. When looking at the best mid-major teams that crashed the party [2005 Utah, 2006 Boise State, 2010 TCU, 2017 UCF, 2021 Cincinnati], they all had to maintain a perfect record, beat a P5 opponent and have the right pieces fall perfectly.
In the case of Cincinnati, the Bearcats would not have been considered to be a contender for the playoff if the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 champions did not have two or more losses. The Bearcats also lucked out with their win over No. 5 Notre Dame due to the Fightin Irish having a 11-1 record.
But in this new era of the playoff, a team like Texas State may still be able to make the playoffs if it can run the table, despite one loss.
With the one playoff spot being given to the highest ranked mid-major team, a competitive loss to a P4 team is valuable as well.
If the Bobcats were blown out by Arizona State, then the chances of Texas State being selected to represent the G5 in the playoff would have seemingly disappeared. Because the Bobcats played a competitive game for all four quarters against a team that realistically could win six to eight games, it will look better on their resume.
Bobcat football history has also shown that a loss does not determine what the success of the season will be.
In 1981, Texas State lost to then rival Texas A&M Kingsville in the season finale. The Bobcats responded by ripping off three straight playoff wins by an average score of 47-12 to capture the first national championship in program history.
In 2005, Texas State lost a competitive game to Texas A&M where the Bobcats racked up 493 yards of offense on a P5 opponent. The Bobcats went on to win the Southland Conference Championship before making a run to the FCS playoff semifinals.
What both 1981 and 2005 have in common is that they didn’t let one loss affect them because the only thing that matters is conference, which both teams did win before going on their playoff runs. It is also what the Bobcats should be more focused on.
The Sun Belt is the premier mid-major football conference, and the winner will have the best shot of representing the conference in the playoff. To paraphrase an old saying that Texas high school football coaches preach, you can go winless in non-district play but it will not matter if you go perfect in district play.
That is where the Bobcats’ focus should be. The loss against Arizona State will sting, but in the end, the result does not matter. Win the conference, and you’re in.
cmcwilliams @sanmarcosrecord.com Twitter: @ColtonBMc
